AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 6 WEEKLY WEATHER NUTLOOK
INTRO
Hello, hello everybody, this is Dave Hayes The Weather Nut with your weekly weather nutlook for Western Mass and our surrounding counties for August 31 through September 6th. This week’s Weather Nut Notable, our Impact of Import, if you will, is yet another return of above-average warmth and humidity from Monday through next Thursday. So while in the short-term our Friday and Saturday look drier and cooler, it will be short-lived, and to that I say, BOO HOO!!
So then, let’s jump into the daily details and paint a picture of how it looks like things will shake out with our weather this coming week.
I’m going to break this podcast down into three sections:
We’ll start with a summary of air temps, skies, and dewpoint temps.
Then we’ll move into a discussion of the atmospheric players involved in producing our weather, and lastly, we’ll end with my Weekend Sneak Peek for the following weekend. Sound good? Let the summary begin!
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SUMMARY
For the sake of brevity, I will provide you with expected high and low temps, skies, and dewpoint temperatures. Now because I cover a region about 50 miles in every direction with Northampton, MA as the center of that circle, I’ll break this down into two general regions:
For the region comprising southern Vermont, southwest New Hampshire, the Taconics of eastern New York, the Berkshires and the western hilltowns of western Mass we can generally expect the following temps, skies and conditions:
Friday skies should be partly cloudy with highs in the upper 60s, with lows in the upper 50s. A spot shower is possible at night.
Saturday skies should be mostly cloudy with highs in the mid 70s, with lows in the low 60s. A spot shower is possible
Sunday skies should be partly sunny with highs in the upper 70s, with lows in the mid to upper 60s. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible.
Monday skies should be partly sunny with highs in the mid 80s, with lows in the upper 60s
Tuesday skies should be partly sunny with highs in the mid 80s, with lows in the mid 60s. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible.
Wednesday skies should be mostly sunny with highs in the mid 80s, with lows in the mid 60s. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible.
Thursday skies should be mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 80s, with lows in the mid to upper 60s. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible.
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For the region comprising northern Connecticut, the rest of western Mass and central Mass, we can generally expect the following temps, skies and conditions:
Friday skies should be mostly cloudy with highs in the low 70s, with lows in the low 60s
Saturday should begin with some patchy early morning fog, transitioning to partly sunny skies with highs in the mid to upper 70s, with lows in the low 60s
Sunday should begin with some patchy early morning fog, transitioning to mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid 80s and the chance of scattered showers, especially during the first half of the day. Expect increasingly humid conditions with lows in the upper 60s
Monday skies should be mostly sunny with highs either side of 90 degrees, with lows either side of 70 degrees, with humid conditions.
Tuesday skies should be mostly sunny with highs either side of 90 degrees, with lows either side of 70 degrees, with humid conditions. Scattered showers are possibly anywhere from Tuesday night into Wednesday
Wednesday skies should be partly sunny with highs either side of 90 degrees, with lows either side of 70 degrees, with humid conditions and showers or thunderstorms possible.
Thursday skies should be mostly sunny with highs either side of 90 degrees, with lows either side of 70 degrees, with humid conditions.
DEWPOINTS
Dewpoint temps for the region over this coming week will be in the 50s to low 60s Friday into Sunday morning. Thereafter, we’ll see an increase into the upper 60s to low 70s from later on Sunday through next Thursday, before hopefully dropping by next weekend.
Ok, so with the summary out of the way, let’s learn about the whys for this week’s weather.
DISCUSSION
Ok, so thankfully we’ve got a two-day reprieve which will give us a break from the high humidity we’ve been enduring from our latest heat wave. Our short-term drier air mass is due to a cold front that was driven to our south on Thursday due to a strengthening area of high pressure over southern Quebec. This area of high pressure will track east into the Canadian Maritimes into very early next week. Now, because high pressure systems have clockwise flow around them, this will generally give us more of a northerly and easterly flow, especially when combined with weak low pressure that will form along the stalling front near the Mid-Atlantic region.
This flow off the ocean to our east will keep us cooler on Friday and Saturday while high pressure to the north will help push drier to the south into our region. WOO HOO!! All in all, Labor Day Weekend looks fairly dry. While we can’t rule out a spot shower each day, or perhaps even a garden variety thunderstorm, any activity should be isolated, with lots of dry periods in between, which will support many outdoor holiday plans.
Unfortunately, though, our dry spell will be short-lived. As the high to our north pushes east into the Canadian Maritimes, it will lose its influence on our weather. At the same time, the jet stream will lift north into Canada as the Bermuda high in the western Atlantic looks to flex its strength and redevelop off the United States’ eastern seaboard by early next week. This will allow temps to warm into the 80s by Sunday, with increased humidity, and continue to pump in additional heat and humidity from Labor Day right through Thursday. This will be the dominating feature of our weather as we enter the month of September.
As we get to about next Monday or Tuesday, a strengthening area of low pressure will be tracking west to east across southern Canada. This will likely drag a cold front towards our region by the middle of next week. As this frontal boundary pushes in and up against the very warm and humid air thanks to our high to the south, we should see a period of showers and thunderstorms develop by early Wednesday. So while scattered showers can’t be ruled out during any day, that’s our best chance for wet weather next week.
WEEKEND SNEAK PEAK
For my Weekend Sneak Peak, I’m seeing indications of a strong high pressure system tracking west to east through southern Canada in a zonal flow by late next week into the weekend. As this happens, our eastern seaboard ridge should retrogress, which means it should track westward into the eastern Mississippi Valley. This more central U.S. ridge, along with the high to our north, should help bend the flow to a more northwesterly direction over New England. The result of all this should lead to a cool down by next weekend with highs in the 70s, scattered showers possible on Saturday, and hopefully drier air by the end of the weekend.
OUTRO
Ok, so to remind you, as we all know, changes in the weather are not uncommon from day to day, and especially can be expected more than 72 hours out, so please check back with my Facebook page at Facebook.com/westernmassweather for the daily details and updates and you can visit my website at westernmassweather.com.
Well then, my friends, that is how things look for our region. Thank you so much for listening this week, I hope you enjoyed it and I’d be so grateful if you’d rate this podcast on iTunes by going to westernmassweather.com/podcast clicking on the the review link there.
Please do meet me here again next week for the next episode of my Weekly Weather Nutlook. This is Dave Hayes The Weather Nut signing off and reminding you: Please be kind to yourself, and to each other. Have a great week!
